"If you want to understand today, you have to search yesterday." ~Pearl Buck.
Following Mr. Bucks great words of wisdom, I decided to look back in time and see how the month of April unfolds for the stock markets.
The month of April is very important for the stock markets, as this is the earnings season. The companies report their earnings and there is a lot of volatility as these numbers affect stock prices.
Nifty on April 1st - 1063.65
Nifty on April 30th - 978.20
April 2000 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 1534.75
Nifty on April 30th - 1406.55
April 2001 :-
Nifty on April 2st - 1138.20 (April 1st was holiday.)
Nifty on April 30th - 1125.25
April 2002 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 1138.95
Nifty on April 30th - 1084.50
April 2003 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 984.30
Nifty on April 30th - 934.05
April 2004 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 1819.65
Nifty on April 30th - 1808.95
April 2005 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 2067.65
Nifty on April 29th - 1902.50 (April 30th was holiday.)
April 2006 :-
Nifty on April 3rd - 3473.30 (April 1st and 2nd were holidays.)
Nifty on April 29th - 3557.60 (April 30th was a holiday.)
April 2007 :-
Nifty on April 2nd - 3633.60 (April 1st was holiday.)
Nifty on April 30th - 4087.90
April 2008 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 4739.55
Nifty on April 30th - ????.??
Markets know the future
--------------------------
While going through the charts since 1999, one thing is very clear. If in April the Nifty is at or close to its high since January, then the earnings are good and markets move up.
On the other hand in the years when Jan or Feb or March are higher than
April then it means that the markets are expecting poor earnings and the
month of April triggers a fresh bear move.
This year we are way off our highest close of 6287.85, hence it is very clear that the markets expect poor earnings and a confirmation of the same this month will trigger a fresh bear move.
Market's first brush with reality will come when YES Bank announces its results on the 9th of April. Further confirmations will follow next week with industry leaders like Infosys issuing their guidance for Q1.
Strategy for this month
------------------------
Traders should take short positions at every rise. However, the best way to make money this month are likely to be Options. By trading in the right options at the right price a lot of money can be made.
Do not venture without the right advice
----------------------------------------
Irrespective of whether you are a trader or an investor, you must not venture into the stock markets for the next few months without a financial advisor.
Also remember that a financial advisor cannot make things better unless
you act on his advice.
Commercial Information
-------------------------
Every year, irrespective of the trend, you can easily earn 100% returns,
year after year after year by subscribing to my services.
It costs very less and gets you huge returns.
Contact me at benitism@gmail.com and I will design for you a winning
strategy.
Disclaimer
-----------
Stock market recommendations are based on fundamental and technical analysis of stocks and no profit can be guaranteed. Investors are advised to make their own investment decisions with the information provided. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made based on the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk.
Following Mr. Bucks great words of wisdom, I decided to look back in time and see how the month of April unfolds for the stock markets.
The month of April is very important for the stock markets, as this is the earnings season. The companies report their earnings and there is a lot of volatility as these numbers affect stock prices.
I have taken data from 1999 to 2007.
April 1999 :-Nifty on April 1st - 1063.65
Nifty on April 30th - 978.20
April 2000 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 1534.75
Nifty on April 30th - 1406.55
April 2001 :-
Nifty on April 2st - 1138.20 (April 1st was holiday.)
Nifty on April 30th - 1125.25
April 2002 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 1138.95
Nifty on April 30th - 1084.50
April 2003 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 984.30
Nifty on April 30th - 934.05
April 2004 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 1819.65
Nifty on April 30th - 1808.95
April 2005 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 2067.65
Nifty on April 29th - 1902.50 (April 30th was holiday.)
April 2006 :-
Nifty on April 3rd - 3473.30 (April 1st and 2nd were holidays.)
Nifty on April 29th - 3557.60 (April 30th was a holiday.)
April 2007 :-
Nifty on April 2nd - 3633.60 (April 1st was holiday.)
Nifty on April 30th - 4087.90
April 2008 :-
Nifty on April 1st - 4739.55
Nifty on April 30th - ????.??
Markets know the future
--------------------------
While going through the charts since 1999, one thing is very clear. If in April the Nifty is at or close to its high since January, then the earnings are good and markets move up.
On the other hand in the years when Jan or Feb or March are higher than
April then it means that the markets are expecting poor earnings and the
month of April triggers a fresh bear move.
This year we are way off our highest close of 6287.85, hence it is very clear that the markets expect poor earnings and a confirmation of the same this month will trigger a fresh bear move.
Market's first brush with reality will come when YES Bank announces its results on the 9th of April. Further confirmations will follow next week with industry leaders like Infosys issuing their guidance for Q1.
Strategy for this month
------------------------
Traders should take short positions at every rise. However, the best way to make money this month are likely to be Options. By trading in the right options at the right price a lot of money can be made.
Do not venture without the right advice
----------------------------------------
Irrespective of whether you are a trader or an investor, you must not venture into the stock markets for the next few months without a financial advisor.
Also remember that a financial advisor cannot make things better unless
you act on his advice.
Commercial Information
-------------------------
Every year, irrespective of the trend, you can easily earn 100% returns,
year after year after year by subscribing to my services.
It costs very less and gets you huge returns.
Contact me at benitism@gmail.com and I will design for you a winning
strategy.
Disclaimer
-----------
Stock market recommendations are based on fundamental and technical analysis of stocks and no profit can be guaranteed. Investors are advised to make their own investment decisions with the information provided. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made based on the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk.
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